Tinubu Has Already Won 2027. So Why Are We Voting? I mean our vote don't count.

If you think the last Nigerian presidential election in 2023, where Tinubu emerged as president with one of the lowest vote totals ever recorded by a winning candidate, was uninspiring, that of 2027 could be worse. I predict it will be the most lacklustre presidential election in the history of Nigeria. It is an election that appears to have been decided before Election Day arrives.

Back in 2015, when the late Muhammadu Buhari contested against the incumbent president, Goodluck Jonathan, the election was exciting. There was widespread belief in the All Progressives Congress’ “change” slogan. The election was too close to call. This provided a market for political analysts, journalists, opinion leaders, data analysts, political scientists and even spiritualists to make predictions. The predictions, especially those made by Christian clerics, gathered momentum in the media. Father Ejike Mbaka was a big beneficiary of the prophecy contest.

Fast-forward to 2026, and many of these figures have been unusually quiet. Nobody wants to tell us what we already know.

A fresh election is also a process designed to stimulate change within the polity. The common man should be able to sit in his room and tell himself, “Change is coming. There is going to be a breath of fresh air very soon.”

But in this case, there is none.

Even the numbers tell a story. INEC has described the progressive decline in voter turnout as a serious concern for Nigerian democracy. Presidential election turnout fell from 53.7% in 2011 to 43.6% in 2015, 34.7% in 2019 and just 26.7% in 2023. In other words, barely one in four registered voters turned out for the 2023 presidential election. INEC itself has linked this decline to voter apathy, declining trust and the perception among some citizens that their voices do not matter. That should worry everyone.

The challenges in Nigeria are so multifaceted that even religious institutions - the rock that many people lean on in difficult times, are struggling to give people hope and succor. Their members are travelling to irreligious Western countries to start life all over again.

Everybody is hoping to get a visa and leave the country for a better life abroad. Popular relocation destinations such as the US, Canada and the UK are dealing with increasing pressure around immigration. The United States has introduced tougher immigration measures, while immigration has become one of the most contentious political issues in the UK. In Canada, concerns about housing, jobs and public services have also intensified the debate about immigration.

The message is becoming clear: even the countries Nigerians are running to are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the pressure created by migration.

In the past, an average Nigerian primarily had economic problems and poor infrastructure to deal with. In recent times, insecurity has spread into the foundation of the country. The possibility of being kidnapped and suddenly owing bandits millions of naira in ransom is frighteningly real in some parts of the country. Even after ransom is paid, there is no guarantee that you will get your loved one back alive.

The cost of living is very high. Inflation remains a major problem, coupled with unemployment and declining purchasing power. Under normal circumstances, a government facing this level of public frustration should be facing a serious electoral challenge. But Nigeria has a caricature of a political system. It is a system of big men and weak institutions, where government institutions are often accused of playing partisan politics.

As someone based abroad, once I get two missed calls from a Nigerian contact, I start to panic.

Once I get a voice note saying, “We need to talk,” I know I am in trouble.

Someone is about to tell me a long and touching story that will tempt me to part with some money.

It is so bad that you cannot even reconnect with an old friend or acquaintance in peace. After 10 to 15 minutes of a phone conversation, the person is asking you to help financially. It has become so bad that some people abroad are even reluctant to share their testimonies with those back home because of perceived bitterness, envy or the fear that their success will immediately become another person’s financial solution.

Back in the Buhari days, we had media aides making strong attempts to publicise the achievements of the president. The Tinubu administration’s communication strategy often appears more focused on responding to political opponents and defending the government with pettiness.

The media space is awash with responses to what presidential hopefuls such as Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar are saying. Even when Tinubu and his wife, Remi Tinubu, try to make a case for themselves, some of their public appearances and statements end up either infuriating people or creating the next comedy skit for content creators.

And this is where the 2027 election becomes interesting. Tinubu is my current favourite to win the next election. He is not necessarily going to win because he is the people’s overwhelming choice or because Nigerians believe he deserves a second term. He could win because of two major factors.

First, Nigeria’s political institutions remain weak and vulnerable to manipulation. The credibility of electoral institutions and the conduct of security agencies will be crucial to how Nigerians perceive the 2027 election.

Second, and perhaps more importantly, is the failure of an organised opposition. Major opposition figures such as Atiku and Obi have yet to demonstrate the level of political maturity and strategic cooperation required to build a formidable coalition capable of seriously challenging an incumbent president.

Instead, the opposition appears to be preparing for another familiar cycle: contest the election, dispute the result and head to court. And then there is the judiciary, an institution whose credibility has been repeatedly questioned by Nigerians over the years.

I have done my own anecdotal pulse survey, and from the people I have spoken to, only one group appears particularly confident about a Tinubu victory: people closely associated with the administration and those who believe the current political arrangement should continue. Of course, an anecdotal survey is not scientific data. But sometimes you don’t need a complicated opinion poll to understand the mood of a country. You simply need to listen to ordinary people. And what I hear is not excitement. It is resignation.

I wish taxpayers’ money could be saved by simply installing Tinubu as the next president and skipping the electoral process. The world is not expecting an upset. The 2027 presidential election could end up being an expensive democratic ritual, a process designed to tick the box, fulfil all righteousness and produce an outcome that many Nigerians already expect. That may be the biggest problem of all.

An election is supposed to give people hope that something can change. If nobody believes it can, why should they bother voting?